This new GIFN weekly feature will provide the best bets for each forthcoming gameweek in the Serie A whilst also delving into some hopefully interesting stats on the way. In future, the post will also review what occurred in the previous week.
Hellas Verona vs Torino (11:30 GMT, 15th Dec)
11th plays 9th in this mid-table clash, a title which the Gialloblu will be happier about than Torino. Under 2.5 Goals has landed 75% of the time in Verona’s home games, where in 8 matches they have failed to find the net in 3 and only scored 2 goals twice which is reflected in their expected Match Goals which sits at 2.1.
Torino have had a steady season, with Under 2.5 Goals landing 43% in their away games. There last two outings away from home produced 1-0 wins over Brescia and Genoa respectively, but they have failed to find the net in 3 of 7 games away from home. Our model predicts a 72% chance of Under 2.5 Goals which should produce odds of 1.38, so there is some decent value to be had.
Bet Tip – Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 on Betfair Exchange
AS Roma vs Spal (17:00 GMT, 15th Dec)
Roma currently sit 5th and play the bottom side of the division in Spal. Having played 7 games at home Roma have only lost 1 whilst winning the last 3 on the bounce. Paulo Fonseca’s men will be looking to maintain pressure on Cagliari who sit on equal points with them in 4th. Spal’s away record is the worst in the division having played 7, lost 6 and drawn 1 and only notching up 1 goal.
When comparing the expected goals for each team (With Roma’s numbers quoted first, Spals’s second) the difference between the teams is made clear: Expected goals per Match 1.8/ 1.2 and Expected Goals Against 1.2/1.7. A Roma win is predicted at 85% making the odds 1.18, so whilst 1.3 is a short price the value is there.
Bet Tip – AS Roma to Win @1.3 on Betfair Exchange
Cagliari vs Lazio (19:45 GMT, 16th Dec)
Cagliari currently sit 4th having made a remarkable start to the season winning 8 of there 15 games. At home this season they have scored in every game apart from the 1st of their campaign against Brescia whilst conceding also in every game bar 1. In their last 3 games at home they have fired in 12 goals, with Joao Pedro bring in prolific form scoring 5 of these, with Both Teams to Score having landed in 75% of there home matches.
The in-form Lazio travel to the Sardegna Arena sitting in 3rd having just toppled champions Juventus last week. They too have scored and conceded in every game bar 1 away from home with BTTS landing 71% of the time. They have netted 2 goals in each of their last 4 away games and have accumulated a eye-watering 3.3 Expected Goals per Match this season. BTTS = Yes is predicted at 70% producing odds of 1.43, so there is a little value in what looks like a cracking bet.
Bet Tip – Both Teams to Score = Yes @ 1.54 on Betfair Exchange.