2020 Profit = -2.5 Points
Last Week’s Results:
It was a mixed week last week, with AC Milan beating Cagliari resulting in a 2-point loss and Sampdoria producing their performance of the season scoring 5 against Brescia. However, we had wins as Lazio beat Napoli 1-0 and Genoa, and the lay of Genoa was successful as they lost 2-1 to Hellas Verona.
Lazio vs Sampdoria (14:00 GMT, 18th Jan)
Immobile capitalized on Ospina’s mistake to continue his incredible run of form and maintain their unbeaten record at home. Having played 9 games at home this season they have won 7 and drawn 2, scoring at home 2.7 goals per game and conceding just 0.9 per game. Inzaghi’s men will look to overcome Sampdoria and maintain the pressure on Inter and Juventus above them.
Sampdoria have dramatically improved under Ranieri and had as dominate win last time out against strugglers Brescia. Last time out away they drew with Milan 0-0 and keeping a clean sheet is a clear tactic for Ranieri when playing away, however the attacking prowess of Lazio with the likes of Immobile will prove too much.
The model predicts Lazio having an 84% chance of winning which should produce odds of 1.19, however on the exchange Lazio to win is a 1.43 which represents good value.
Tip – 1 Point on Lazio to Win @ 1.43 on the Betfair Exchange
Sassuolo vs Torino (17:00 GMT, 18th Jan)
Sassuolo currently sit 15th in Serie A and have had a disappointing couple of results recently losing their last 3 games, most recently 3-0 to Udinese. Over 2.5 goals has landed in every one of Sassuolo’s home games this season and they are averaging a massive 3.4 match goals per game in the Serie A this season.
Torino are 8th and have won 3 of their last 4 away games beating Roma 2-0 last time out with a Belotti double. Over 2.5 goals has landed 56% in their away games this season and they have scored in 6 of 9 away games. In the Serie A this season their matches have yielded on average 2.7 match goals.
The model predicts a Over 2.5 Goals to occur 73% of the time in this match which produces odds of 1.36, so at 1.96 there is 0.60 worth of value here.
Tip – 1 Point on Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.96 on the Betfair Exchange
AC Milan vs Udinese (11:30 GMT, 19th Jan)
Ibrahimović scored his first goal back for AC as they won 2-0 against Cagliari away from home last week. Under 2.5 goals has occurred 67% of the time in their home games and when Milan play the middle third teams (Teams positioned 8th – 14th) under 2.5 has landed 6 out of 7 times. The Rossoneri have struggled infront of goal this season reflecting Piatek’s poor form of late, and they average 2.2 match goals per game.
Under 2.5 Goals has landed in 44% of Udinese’s away games with them currently sitting 12th in the league. Away from home in 9 games they have averaged just scored just 6 goals equalling a goals per away game of just 0.66. They have failed to score in 3 games and kept 2 clean sheets, and whilst defence has been a problem there struggles in scored paired with AC Milan’s suggested this could be a low scoring affair.
There is a 76% of Under 2.5 Goals in this match which would produce odds of 1.36, so odds of 1.9 show exceptional value in this bet.
Bet Tip – 1 Point on Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.9 on the Betfair Exchange