The Euro 2024 playoffs are still pending, but the group stage of the qualifying campaign is finished. Consequently, out of the 24 teams that will participate in Germany next summer, 21 have already been determined, and some nations have qualified more convincingly than others.
Having established the group structure, we shall now assess the odds of defending champions Italy hoisting the trophy for the second time in succession.
Rocky Euro 2024 Qualification for Italy
Defending European champions, Italy qualified for Euro 2024 in Germany following a scoreless draw with Ukraine.
The point ensured Italy’s second-place finish in Group C, tied with third-placed Ukraine on 14 points but with a superior head-to-head record following a close contest in which the outcome could have been either way, the Azzurri avoided a playoff scenario.
Ukraine, who have never defeated Italy, had compelling arguments for a stoppage-time penalty, but it was not awarded following Bryan Cristante’s erroneous tackle on Mykhailo Mudryk.
Players and personnel from Ukraine expressed their discontent and shock at the decision, but their cries went unanswered as officials insisted there was nothing else that could be done.
After the match, Ukraine head coach Serhiy Rebrov stated unequivocally that the referee and VAR rendered an erroneous decision.
Euro 2024 Qualifiers Group C Standings
|
Pos. |
Team |
P |
W |
D |
L |
GD |
PTS |
Form |
|
1 |
England |
8 |
6 |
2 |
0 |
18 |
20 |
W/W/D/W/W/D |
|
2 |
Italy |
8 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
7 |
14 |
D/W/W/L/W/D |
|
3 |
Ukraine |
8 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
14 |
W/D/L/W/W/D |
|
4 |
Macedonia |
8 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
-10 |
8 |
L/D/W/L/L/D |
|
5 |
Malta |
8 |
0 |
0 |
8 |
-18 |
0 |
L/L/L/L/L/L |
Many critics claim the VAR decision was an example of injustice. Still, ultimately, it stood, and Italy finished the qualifying campaign six points adrift of Group C leaders England, whose qualification was assured in October with a 3-1 victory over Luciano Spalletti’s squad at Wembley.
However, despite qualification, it doesn’t get any easier for Italy.
The Euro 2024 “Group of Death”
Placing reigning champions Italy in the ‘Group of Death’ for Euro 2024 has presented them with a formidable challenge.
The 2020 champions, who prevailed over England in the final at Wembley on penalties, must now advance past Spain and Croatia in order to prevent an early elimination in Group B.
Italy’s Euro 2024 Group
Euro 2024 Group B:
- Spain
- Croatia
- Italy
- Albania
Group B comprises the teams ranked sixth, seventh, and eighth, respectively, in Europe as per the FIFA rankings.
That ought to result in an extraordinarily close contest in Germany, given that the group has won five championships in total, including a joint-record three by Spain in 1964, 2008, and 2012, and two by Italy in 1968 and 2020.
Italy’s only saving grace is that it encounters Albania in its initial match of the competition on June 15, the same day that Spain and Croatia face off. The Azzurri must accumulate three points against the modest Albanians before crucial matches against the Spanish and Croatians, which could determine their fate.
What do the oddsmakers think?
After reviewing the leading sports betting sites, Spain tops the odds to win Group B, trailed by Italy, Croatia, and then Albania.
|
Team |
Odds to Win Group B |
Odds to Qualify (Top 2) |
|
Spain |
1.65 |
1.09 |
|
Italy |
3.75 |
1.20 |
|
Croatia |
5.00 |
1.30 |
|
Albania |
20.00 |
4.00 |
A battle for second between Italy and Croatia is expected, and this isn’t a surprising stance taken from the oddsmakers when considering historical records. In fact, historical statistics would suggest that Italy holds a greater advantage over Spain as opposed to Croatia.
In order to ascend to Wembley Stadium with the EURO 2020 trophy, Azzurri overcame Spain on penalties in the EURO 2020 semi-final; the match ended 1-1 with goals from Alvaro Morata and Federico Chiesa.
Spain defeated its opponents 2-1 in the Nations League semi-finals in both October 2021 and June 2023.
The last time Spain defeated Italy in a significant tournament was in the 2012 EURO Final, where they emerged 4-0 victors after a group stage tie of 1-1. That was followed by Italy’s 2-0 victory in the Round of 16 of the 2016 EURO and that semi-final match.
Italy’s record against Albania is considerably more reassuring, having won all four meetings (including friendlies) with the country, netting seven goals and conceding one. Their most recent meeting occurred in November 2022 and was amicable; the Azzurri emerged victorious 3-1.
Nevertheless, Italy’s record against Croatia is substantially more bleak, having secured victory in a mere one of their nine official encounters. In April 1942, they lost 4-0 in a friendly; their last three meetings, in EURO 2012 and both home and away in the EURO 2016 qualifying group, concluded 1-1.
Italy versus Group B
Although Spain should have had the upper hand against all three opponents on paper, they suffered a grievous setback last month when Barcelona midfielder Gavi suffered a significant knee injury. The veteran coach who emerged from the shadows the previous year, Luis de la Fuente, must devise a workable backup plan in the event that he is almost certain to miss the tournament.
Current manager Luciano Spalletti, who took over under difficult circumstances after Roberto Mancini, the individual who led the country to triumph at Euro 2020, unexpectedly resigned in the summer to take over Saudi Arabia, will not have an easy time defending the title.
Spalletti is cognizant that he still has a substantial amount of work to do before next summer. Italy, who have been paired with Spain and Croatia, are still in dire need of a dependable goalscorer. However, he does possess several world-class players in, Federico Chiesa, Nicolo Barella, Federico Dimarco, and Alessandro Bastoni. Furthermore, his title victory at Napoli demonstrated that he can perform miracles with undervalued squads.
