Points System
The point system is so that it is possible to track profit and loss throughout the remainder of the season. 1 point is equivalent to an amount of money you are comfortable staking. For example, if 1 Point = £10 then a 2 Point bet would be staking £20.
Cagliari vs AC Milan (14:00 GMT, 11th Jan)
The arrival of the mighty Zlatan Ibrahimović has perhaps slightly distracted fans from Milan’s continued woes in the league as they currently sit 12th and they once again looked to struggle against a resilient Sampdoria side. This season the Rossoneri have scored on average 0.9 goals per game whilst conceding 1.3 resulting in a -0.4 goal difference per game. Away from home they have played 9, losing 5 and winning the other 4 although it must be mentioned their wins have come against Hellas Verona, Genoa and Parma.
Rolando Maran’s has provided the surprise package of the Serie A this season with the Cagliari currently sitting in 6th. Their home form this season has been solid losing only 3 of their 9 games. This season they have outperformed Milan on actual goals per game significantly scoring 1.8. Overall in the league this season they have only lost 5 times, and with the prolific Joao Pedro (11 goals) looking to add more to his tally as the Islanders will be looking to get back to winning ways against their visitors.
The model predicts a 20% chance of Gattuso’s men winning, whereas the odds represent AC Milan at having a 40% chance of victory meaning the lay shows good value here.
Bet Tip – Lay AC Milan to be Liable for 2 Points
Lazio vs Napoli (15:00 GMT, 11th Jan)
Lazio are arguably the team to watch this season for the neutral where they have accumulated 3.2 expected total match goals and outperformed this with an actual average 3.4 goals per match. At home this season Over 2.5 Goals has landed 75% with the Eagles scoring 3 or more goals 6 out of 8 games this season. Lazio are currently unbeaten at home having won 6 and will be aiming to reduce their game on Inter and Juve by 3 points.
Napoli’s issues off the pitch weren’t soothed last time out, as the gifted Lukaku and Conte’s men a 3-1 win. There actual average match goals come in at 2.9 per game, with Gli Azzurri having scored in every away game this season bar Torino in October. They have won just 3 away from home this season have also only one clean sheet. Lazio lead by the prolific Immobile will be eying up another victory with Napoli’s defensive frailties in mind.
The model predicts Over 2.5 Goals to have a 75% chance, and therefore the odds should be 1.32. A Lazio win comes out at 70% producing odds of 1.41 so there is good value in both bets.
Bet Tip – 1 Point on Lazio to Win @2.12 on Betfair Exchange
Bet Tip – 1 Point on Over 2.5 Goals @1.58 on Betfair Exchange
Sampdoria vs Brescia (14:00, 12th Jan)
Sampdoria currently sit 16th, 4 places higher than when Claudio Ranieri took over and their solid form continued with a solid 1-1 draw against Milan last time out. Under 2.5 Goals has landed 56% in their home games and they concede on average 1.5 goals per game, but since Raneiri’s appointment that figure has reduced to just 1 goal per game.
In Brescia away games Under 2.5 Goals has landed in 56% of games aswell, with La Leonessa keeping 3 clean sheets away and never scoring more than one goal per game. Against the middle 8 teams this season Under 2.5 has landed 5 out 7 games
The model predicts Under 2.5 Goals to happen 86% of the time which would produce odds of 1.16, so odds of 1.84 represent huge value on this bet.
Tip – 1 Point on Under 2.5 Goals = Yes @ 1.84 on Betfair Exchange
Hellas Verona vs Genoa (17:00 GMT, 12th Jan)
Verona’s home form this season has been relatively strong losing just 3 games and at home on average conceding just 1.1 goals per game at home which is translated into their 11th position in the league. Against bottom six teams this season they have lost just 1 and will be aiming to maintain this form against struggling Genoa.
Genoa look to slipping into Serie B as they sit 19th having won just 3 games all season an remain winless away. Despite Christian Kouame attempting to fill the Piatek sized hole with 7 goal contributions it is in defence where their issues lie. They concede on average 2 goals per match and have the worst goal difference in the league at -17. When playing against middle third teams Genoa have just won one, a stat I expect to once again restrict them from winning at Stadio Marc’Antonio Bentegodi.
The model predicts Genoa having a 15% chance of winning and laying them at their current price reflects them having a 30% chance, so there is good value to be had for a team winless away.
